New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

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Embar Angylwrath
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New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Embar Angylwrath »

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/115xx/doc115 ... -26-10.pdf

Recent as of May 10th, getting a lot of play around Washington right now, and Dems are hopping mad about it. Elmendorf sums up the presentation at the very beginning, with this, all on its own slide:
Rising health costs will put tremendous pressure on the federal budget during the next few decades and beyond. In CBO’s judgment, the health legislation enacted earlier this year does not substantially diminish that pressure.
So much for the "bending the cost curve" argument...
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Re: New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Partha »

Source: Goldman Sachs based on CBO estimates.
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Re: New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Lurker »

Partha,
I don't think there's anything wrong with the CBO presentation. There's nothing surprising about it either.

As I said in in April, the CBO projections show defict reduction and a bending of the curve even if none of the cost control methods work. I was more direct in March, explaining that the CBO can't adequately score the "dozens of provisions contained in the bill that health economists think will have bigger impacts on cost". I suggested people google an article in the WSJ called "Health Reform Passes the Cost Test" for more information on what this bill does to bend the cost curve.

I'm not knocking the CBO - they are accurate at what they do, but they simply can't score (and didn't attempt to) the cost savings from pilot programs and other incentives aimed at moving us away from quantity of care and towards quality of care.

Further, it's just as accurate to say the Powerpoint slide Embar quoted shows the Affordable Care Act diminishes pressure on the federal budget, just not substantially. The presentation also shows large deficit reduction because of the ACA.

Embar is attacking the ACA as being horrible when the sources he's using show it will make our situation better. Sad and predictable. Time to drag out the fitting avatar I used in this thread when Embar was making a similarly idiotic attack on Obama. "Damn Obama for making things better!!!"


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Embar Angylwrath
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Re: New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Embar Angylwrath »

What I got from that Powerpoint is that the CBO seems to think Obamacare will have no real effect on curtailing costs, which of course is what you claimed over and over, ad nauseum. Obamacare morphed from what started as a way to curtail pressure on the deficit, to coverage expansion with no real curtailment of pressure on the deficit.

If Obamacare makes no real difference on deficit spending as from what was the status before (and it remains to be seen how all those presently non-existant Medicare "reforms" will affect the cost), then you can't in good faith cliam this is a cost savings law. It no longer bends the cost curve, as you have claimed it would. At least according to the CBO.

And another thing... the CBO estimates are based on everything happening teh government said it would.. essentially 100% performance. When was the last time a government program ever did that?
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Re: New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Lurker »

Did you read my last post? I seriously can't tell given your response.
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Re: New Elmendorf ppt on Obamacare

Post by Lurker »

Adding...

The source you brought to this thread says that the Affordable Care Act will bend the cost curve and reduce the deficit. It won't solve everything given the scope of the problems, but the legislation does what it claimed it would do.

The source you rely on said the legislation will "reduce the federal budgetary commitment to health care" starting in 2019, will "reduce budget deficits by about 140 billion during the 2010-2019 period" and by about "one-half percent of (GDP) during the following decade". The source you rely on said "projected reductions in budget deficits and in the federal budgetary commitment to health care during the decade beyond the 10-year budget window are steps in the direction of sustainable fiscal policy. Small steps given the scope of the problem, but positive steps nonetheless.

That's what the source you brought to the thread says, and he contradicts you. So, you fall back to saying that the source you relied on is wrong because Congress won't follow the legislation.

I posted this interview before. Congress has been very good at sticking to cuts in Medicare in the past and there's no reason to believe they won't this time. And "deficit nihilism", the belief that we shouldn't enact legislation that cuts the deficit because we won't stick to the legislation, is nonsensical. If we follow that logic we have no options and might as well just give up.

The ACA, according to your source, pays for itself, reduces the deficit in the short term and even more in the long term, and bends the cost curve. Oh, and it extends coverage to millions of people who would have had health insurance otherwise. All that is exactly how it was sold. While it doesn't completely solve all our long term problems it's a positive step in the right direction. You attacking it as bad when it improves our situation makes it clear what you are... a partisan constantly searching for a reason to attack Obama.
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