Scary Poll Numbers for the President

[Kulaf]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obam ... 26037.html

Michelle Bachmann (aka anyone BUT Obama) is only 4 points out of the running amongst registered voters. That is a lot of pent up dissatisfaction right there.

[Lurker]

Polls this far out are meaningless (just ask President Dole), but I have a sanity check question for you...

If the matchup was Obama vs. Bachmann, who would you vote for?

[Kulaf]

Well I don't think it is meaningless:

"This is below the rating that any of the six incumbent presidents re-elected since Eisenhower has had at the time of the presidential election," Gallup writes.

The only question is will his numbers improve before the election, or not. As to your question......I will not support Bachmann in any way, shape or form. I'll just leave it at that.

[Ddrak]

It means there's no foregone conclusion, but I wouldn't say much more than that.

Dd

[Harlowe]

I don't think the country is completely insane, so I'm pretty confident Bachmann won't be our next president. I don't think she'll even make it to the ballot - I have more faith in the GOP than I have in the area of MN she represents. It's tea-bagger central there.

[MeGusta]

At this time in 2007 the polls had Giuliani beating Hillary Clinton.

[Embar Angylwrath]

Polls this far out are meaningless (just ask President Dole), but I have a sanity check question for you...

If the matchup was Obama vs. Bachmann, who would you vote for?

They are meaningless for the GOP candidates, but not as a referendum on the current satisfaction witht he current administration. That Obama is polling so low against a known nut-case.. that's the disturbiing part for the Democratic party. Theonly thing in Obama's favor right now is the GOPs lack of a credible candidate that can move the centerline voters.

If Christie gets inthe race (and I don't think he will), Obama would have a very real Republican threat. Right now, there's not much out there in the Republicna filed that can really swing the independents.

[Flunkie]

I'm pretty sure no president has been reelected with unemployment over 8%, but here are the last several reelections:

Unemployment Rate Incumbent President Election year Election Outcome
7.7 percent Gerald Ford (R) 1976 Democratic victory
7.5 percent Jimmy Carter (D) 1980 Republican victory
7.2 percent Ronald Reagan (R) 1984 Republican victory
7.4 percent George H.W. Bush (R) 1992 Democratic victory
5.4 percent Bill Clinton (D) 1996 Democratic victory
5.5 percent George W. Bush (R) 2004 Republican victory

The iron rule has been that a bad economy gets the sitting president kicked to the curb. Unemployment was a problem in 1984, but the economy had been heading in the right direction for a couple of years by that time. George HW Bush lost because of the vote split with Perot getting almost 19%. If people feel like the economy isn't making headway next year, Obama is going to lose. I don't think it matters much if it's Perry or one of the other leading contenders fronting the Republicans unless a third party emerges strong enough to take the Rebpublican votes away. Otherwise, for Obama the election will be a fiasco if job growth and the GDP are flat next year.

And another thing, he needs to start trying to look serious in front of the media, pictures like this need to stop appearing on the front page all the time:



This is a country in trouble; not a bunch of kids going to the circus.