Exit polling internal review finds...

[Ddrak]

...that the exit polls were probably at fault for the discripancy, not the vote counting.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/01/ ... index.html

Dd

[Partha]

CNN did not air those inaccurate results or post them on its Web site, and CNN's projections of winners on election night were accurate.

Ok, this is false. Screen caps of their website show where they altered the polling data on their website from the Kerry+ one to the final margin later in the evening. You'll forgive me if I take this article with a cowlick.

[Rsak]

Further evidence that I really cannot support the practice of polling!

[Relbeek Einre]

Not surprised.

I'm on two Republican mailing lists and I received at least two emails telling me not to participate in exit polls.

Deliberate interference won the day.

[Rsak]

How does that article support the view that there was deliberate interference?

[Torakus]

I think he meant that the idea behind it was that if Republicans did not participate in exit polls the Democrats would show marked leads everywhere, so later mountain and pacific democrat voters, seeing the initial exit polls would say "great I can save some time on my trip home and not vote, my guy has a commanding lead anyway". Which is in effect what happened.

However, calling that particular tactic anything but smart is beyond me. Its neither a dirty trick, nor is it cheating. In fact I think our process would be served quite nicely by not having exit polls at all. If it forces the people to go out and actually vote, then I am all for it. Fuck our inccessant need for instant gratification and screw the media's "right" to know. I think no exit polls + no vote count results until all precincts in all areas close would do the trick. America would have to stop being a bunch of whiny bitches first though.

Torakus

[Rsak]

Then should he not have said Deliberate Non-Interference won the day?

[Relbeek Einre]

Rsak doesn't read so good.

And Torakus, I agree, exit polls should be scrapped.

[Ddrak]

They should have poll closing time uniform across the country. I said the same thing when I was in Australia too.

Dd

[Rsak]

Relbeek,

If you are telling people to not participate in the polls then you are not interfering with the polls for many of the reasons that Torakus pointed out. Yet that does not stop you from making yet another attack based on nothing more then your rabid hate.

The problem is not either of the campaings, but rather the fickle nature of the polls themselves.

[Mozmonar]

If you are telling people to not participate in the polls then you are not interfering with the polls...

You are absolutely interfering with the polls if you tell people not to participate in them.

[Burz]

They should have poll closing time uniform across the country. I said the same thing when I was in Australia too.

Dd

Disenfranchising Kangaroos...

[Harlowe]

It's interference. Much like the space debris orbiting your massive head....which would explain the neurotransmitter issues.

[Rsak]

No you are not. It is not your job to make sure the poll getting the proper cross sample of individuals to ensure the accruacy fo the poll. That job is the pollsters.

That job is the same whether it is an exit poll outside of a voting station or a call sampling across america. The same assurances that some people will say they do not want to participate exist in both situations and the polling company have to take that into account.

If there was some kind of expectation or requirement that all people approached by a pollster have to answer or answer honesty then you would be correct, but seeing how that is not the case I once again point out that the problem is not the fault of the evil republicians or the avid democratic votes who want to speak out. It is instead a flaw in the process of the polling practice.

I agre with the comments Ddrak has made in the past that polls can be accurate, but there is quite a bit of evidence that they can be innacurate or biased as well. This type of poll usually removes that kind of bias since the question is rather simple "Who did you vote for?". That forces the cause of the error to be in the applicant selection process and no instructions on some emails will change the validity on a properly executed poll.

[Mozmonar]

You are still interfering with the results of the polls.

[Rsak]

No you are not.

The job of the poll process is to generate the data sample either by assuring that the sample accurately represents the group you are trying to predict without modification or to use statistical theory to account for the problems in the data sample to adjust it to accurately predict the group.

The only thing that such an email direcitng people to avoid pollsters does is effect the sample data. Even that effect is marginal since the pollsters are in charge of collecting it not the republicians refusing to take part. The results however are directly effected by the poll process not the individual responses of the people polled.

No blame can be attributed to those refusing to participate since the failure was not because of their actions.

[Mozmonar]

You are an idiot.

If you are intentionally skewing the sample data you are intefering with the results of the poll. It has nothing to do with who is responsible for collecting the data. Interference can come in many forms and from mmany sources.

[Rsak]

What you are failing to understand is that a properly done poll cannot be interfered with in this way.

The fault is in the poll, not the evil republicians like Relbeek states.

[Aabe]

Actually, my understanding of early reporting effect was that if one candidtate was winning by a big margin. Say the demo candidate. Then the republicans would throw their hands in the air and say "why vote" and not even bother. I am surpised republican letters encouraged not participating, cause it tends to demoralize the loser into not even trying.

I didnt get such a letter, but I did NOT participate because I dont trust them not to release results early. (seems I was right about that) If they wanna know how I voted they can give me something to fill out and mail back to them.

[vaulos]

Rsak- What the Republicans did was to attempt to prevent the [any] exit poll from accurately gathering information through the non-compliance of Republicans in general. It was CLEARLY an attempt at alter the exit-poll. It would not have mattered HOW the poll was conducted. If the sample audience is unwilling to participate, then no poll will be effective.

Though, I have to say that if some people didn't vote because of some poll they saw on TV, I would simply point and laugh, and remind everyone that stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote.